Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?
Probability
20¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+6.2pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$18.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+13.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 20¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 832h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 832.2h
- 13:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 832h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:47PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 20¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 21¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 21¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 21¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 21¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 20¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 11¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 11¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 11¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 10¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.1pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.7pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.6pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election is currently scheduled to be held on May 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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