Will Zack Wheeler win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?
Probability
19¢
1h
+12.6pp
24h
+13.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+15.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 13pp over 24h
Now 19¢; +12.6pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4809h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 37.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4808.6h
- 15:23SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4809h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:23PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.1pp
to 16¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 13¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 7¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 4¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.1pp
to 16¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 8¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 7¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.2pp
to 13¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.1pp
to 11¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.7pp
to 18¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.6pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.3pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.1pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.4pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.8pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.3pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (37.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).