Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osaka
Probability
80¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+38.0pp
24h Vol
$41.53
Liquidity
$4.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 38pp over 24h
Now 80¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $4.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 75¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 169.2h
Price movement
+38.0pp over the last 24h, now 80¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Sabalenka” if Aryna Sabalenka wins the first set. It will resolve to “Osaka” if Naomi Osaka wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA match statistics.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.