X banned in any European country by December 31?

1. 1

   Down 6pp over 24h

   Now 42¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $9.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.