Adorable-Mirror
0x00a14f4c80321f8aff789f1bf2ad72fcc3700304
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$13.59
Total PnL
$-108.96
Realised
$-5.34
Win rate
0%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 67.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.71
$1.48
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
5 shares @ 78.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.59
$0.72
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
2 shares @ 67.5¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.29
$0.09
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 37.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.07
$-0.55
- YES
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
1 shares @ 36.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.35
$-0.15
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2 shares @ 35.8¢·now 16.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.26
$-0.30
- YES
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
5 shares @ 10.0¢·now 4.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.20
$-0.29
- NO
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
3 shares @ 13.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.12
$-0.23
- PYRAMIDS FC
Spread: Pyramids FC (-1.5)
6102 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-28.34
- NO
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?
408 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-13.04
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?$7.02Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?$1.36Jun 12, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill COD Meknès win on 2026-06-01?$0.48Jun 1, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill COD Meknès win on 2026-06-01?$1.01Jun 1, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$0.63Jun 1, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.01Jun 1, 14:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?$1.00Jun 1, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners$1.02May 30, 01:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?$1.20May 29, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?$1.00May 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?$1.20May 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?$1.22May 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?$3.74May 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$3.69May 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?$5.52May 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?$0.91May 28, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?$3.17May 28, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$6.02May 28, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?$5.62May 28, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?$1.00May 28, 20:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 18:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.