Warm-Loft
0x017afa9f2e0a961db010236aede7b3abe396e5df
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$14.95
Total PnL
$-4.05
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
13 shares @ 76.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$7.43
$-2.57
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 30.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.56
$1.56
- YES
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$1.54
$0.54
- MIRRA ANDREEVA
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva
1 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$1.22
$0.22
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1 shares @ 82.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.15
$0.15
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2 shares @ 62.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- YES
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
6 shares @ 17.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva$1.01Jun 6, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$5.06Apr 15, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by June 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 8, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$3.00Apr 8, 16:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?$1.22Apr 8, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Leavitt say "Air" or "Land" or "Sea" 3+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$1.45Apr 8, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?$2.38Apr 8, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$2.78Apr 8, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?$0.00Mar 23, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYItaly Judicial Reform Referendum passes?$1.00Mar 22, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Air" or "Land" or "Sea" 3+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$1.00Mar 18, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?$1.00Mar 18, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?$1.00Mar 18, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.00Mar 18, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar strike Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 18, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?$1.00Mar 18, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$1.00Mar 18, 22:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by March 31?$15.68Mar 18, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$7.15Mar 18, 22:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Fleet" this week? (March 1)$0.00Mar 18, 22:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $3.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 27, 16:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 6, 09:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.