Defiant-Toaster
0x04c586cb999c5c8cebd3470972c5fd2ae861d472
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$207.33
Total PnL
$-75.70
Realised
$-7.13
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
55 shares @ 60.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.00
$21.60
- YES
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
41 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$40.83
$26.13
- YES
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
40 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$40.00
$10.40
- NO
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
38 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$37.84
$18.54
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
27 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$27.03
$7.03
- NO
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?
7 shares @ 75.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$6.62
$1.62
- NO
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?
152 shares @ 14.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-21.54
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
70 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March?
70 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
55 shares @ 35.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-19.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$10.00Apr 8, 09:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?$15.03Apr 8, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$3.00Apr 7, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?$9.00Apr 7, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$5.10Apr 7, 09:02 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$18.95Apr 6, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?$5.00Apr 4, 10:55 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$6.30Apr 4, 10:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?$0.08Apr 4, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation increase by 2.8% in March?$0.17Apr 4, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation increase by 2.9% in March?$0.14Apr 4, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$9.80Apr 3, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$5.00Apr 3, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$20.00Apr 2, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$20.00Apr 2, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?$5.00Apr 1, 13:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$59.69Apr 1, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$10.00Apr 1, 06:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?$10.27Mar 31, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$11.78Mar 31, 09:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $9.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 13:37 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 8, 09:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.