Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

1. 1

   Up 3pp over 24h

   Now 94¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Light volume — move on a thin book

   Only $5.1k traded against $29.7k of visible liquidity (0.17× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.

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This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.