0x069e6e17860a1ca21bb3f899ce9986780cf5863c
0x069e6e17860a1ca21bb3f899ce9986780cf5863c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$565.35
Total PnL
$364.40
Realised
$257.14
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?
936 shares @ 8.1¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$117.01
$41.64
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?
1658 shares @ 4.0¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$82.08
$15.89
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
296 shares @ 24.6¢·now 26.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$76.91
$4.26
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
1253 shares @ 4.1¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$49.48
$-2.47
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
155 shares @ 38.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$48.87
$-10.09
- YES
Will Waymo launch in Boston, MA by December 31 2026?
301 shares @ 8.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.14
$18.05
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
500 shares @ 3.4¢·now 8.4¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$42.00
$25.14
- YES
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?
367 shares @ 9.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.57
$5.51
- YES
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026?
916 shares @ 3.0¢·now 4.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.57
$9.60
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
187 shares @ 16.6¢·now 16.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$30.72
$-0.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?$31.45Jul 28, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?$32.21Jul 28, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?$18.10Jul 28, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?$18.80Jul 28, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?$5.89Jul 28, 16:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLMoonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?$0.39Jul 26, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLMoonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?$1.78Jul 26, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?$70.64Jul 26, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?$9.99Jul 26, 21:18 UTC
- TRADESELLMoonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?$9.88Jul 26, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Waymo launch in Boston, MA by December 31 2026?$24.98Jul 26, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?$10.00Jul 26, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?$44.93Jul 26, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?$109.89Jul 26, 10:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?$17.27Jul 26, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?$19.44Jul 26, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?$4.87Jul 26, 10:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$0.32Jul 25, 19:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$0.54Jul 25, 19:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $22.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 19:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.