Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$437.04
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.4h
- 14:36SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 13¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 13¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 13¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 13¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 13¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 13¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 14¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 13¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 13¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 13¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 13¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 13¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 13¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 13¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.5pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).