New-Conference
0x06fb6a9076bd43360d93660c0ca9086db5dd9713
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
88
Open notional
$9.5K
Total PnL
$-15.2K
Realised
$-438.71
Win rate
22%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 88- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
2200 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.2K
$42.90
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
1057 shares @ 94.8¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$988.36
$-14.14
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1697 shares @ 40.9¢·now 51.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$874.81
$180.78
- NO
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
550 shares @ 73.9¢·now 78.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$432.01
$25.37
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
909 shares @ 54.1¢·now 45.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$413.45
$-78.55
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?
400 shares @ 97.3¢·now 99.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$396.18
$7.00
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 78.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$387.50
$-2.50
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
766 shares @ 42.3¢·now 42.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$325.42
$1.36
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
1110 shares @ 42.6¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$294.13
$-178.77
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
430 shares @ 60.5¢·now 54.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$234.35
$-25.65
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.38Aug 4, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$1.31Aug 4, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$32.81Aug 3, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?$42.31Aug 3, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?$18.75Aug 3, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?$56.25Aug 3, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?$54.84Aug 3, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?$6.88Aug 3, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?$37.70Aug 3, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?$28.20Aug 3, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?$3.06Aug 3, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?$193.40Aug 3, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?$1.00Aug 3, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?$1.02Aug 3, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$198.49Aug 3, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$38.00Aug 3, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$106.93Aug 3, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$9.50Aug 3, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?$2.48Aug 3, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?$7.56Aug 3, 05:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 4 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
30%
Sample
limited
4 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
$65.0K · 65% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $53.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.