0x08d4e6802482d7abb7d05fff200aa50ddc892293
0x08d4e6802482d7abb7d05fff200aa50ddc892293
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$70.81
Total PnL
$7.65
Realised
$-0.04
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
12 shares @ 47.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$11.53
$6.09
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
5 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.78
$0.12
- NO
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 73.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.68
$1.25
- YES
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
4 shares @ 98.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.98
$0.07
- NO
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?
4 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.89
$0.66
- NO
Remote IPO before 2027?
4 shares @ 85.4¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.61
$-0.15
- NO
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 37.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.97
$1.87
- NO
Will Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?
3 shares @ 87.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.87
$0.35
- NO
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 80.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.73
$0.53
- NO
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.61
$0.55
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?$1.10Apr 23, 00:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?$0.81Apr 22, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$0.45Apr 21, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.10Apr 21, 20:30 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$0.16Apr 21, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$0.13Apr 21, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?$1.10Apr 13, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLDeepSeek V4 released by April 15?$0.96Apr 13, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?$1.10Apr 13, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?$1.10Apr 13, 11:19 UTC
- TRADESELLDeepSeek V4 released by April 15?$2.98Apr 13, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$1.10Apr 12, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$1.20Apr 12, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$0.03Apr 12, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$0.17Apr 12, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?$1.10Apr 11, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$0.06Apr 11, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?$1.10Apr 11, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?$1.11Apr 11, 05:11 UTC
- TRADESELLDatabricks IPO before 2027?$0.37Apr 10, 22:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 5, 23:15 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 23, 00:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.