Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
Probability
8¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1568h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $2.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1568.3h
- 15:43SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1568h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 9¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 9¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 9¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 9¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).