Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
Probability
51¢
1h
+6.5pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$640.54
Probability (last 7 days)
+16.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 51¢; +6.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 42.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1570.6h
- 13:24SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 52¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 51¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 44¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 45¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 51¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 55¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 50¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 51¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 54¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 48¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 54¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 51¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 60¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 53¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 51¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 51¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (42.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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