Surprised-Stretch
0x0a75613d7ee80e91e2e93290f36e00f1751c5603
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
105
Open notional
$37.39
Total PnL
$-157.55
Realised
$-8.77
Win rate
0%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 105- NO
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
15 shares @ 47.3¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.32
$0.32
- NO
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
14 shares @ 49.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.21
$0.21
- YES
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
14 shares @ 49.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.07
$0.07
- YES
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
14 shares @ 49.6¢·now 49.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.04
$0.04
- NO
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
14 shares @ 50.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.93
$-0.07
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?
153 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.07
$-5.93
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?
60 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.45
$-6.55
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?
48 shares @ 14.6¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.24
$-6.76
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
32 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.05
$-6.95
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
928 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$0.00Jun 7, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$1.06Jun 7, 13:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$0.00Jun 7, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$4.55Jun 7, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$1.05Jun 7, 09:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$0.00Jun 7, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.06Jun 7, 09:25 UTC
- TRADESELLNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$8.48May 30, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$11.67May 30, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?$12.90May 30, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$28.63May 30, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$40.67May 30, 14:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$18.63May 3, 13:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$7.20Apr 24, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$1.00Apr 24, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$1.00Apr 24, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$1.00Apr 24, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$1.00Apr 22, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$0.90Apr 22, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$0.95Apr 22, 05:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $3.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 19, 00:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 7, 13:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.