Superior-Olive
0x0f37cb80dee49d55b5f6d9e595d52591d6371410
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$20.4K
Total PnL
$3.1K
Realised
$1.9K
Win rate
86%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
10000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.1K
$3.1K
- YES
Will Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?
2280 shares @ 10.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.3K
$2.1K
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
10000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.9K
$-3.1K
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
4346 shares @ 39.1¢·now 38.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$-33.35
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
10000 shares @ 13.4¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.3K
$-75.00
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
2385 shares @ 39.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.0K
$118.62
- NO
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
953 shares @ 64.5¢·now 77.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$733.65
$118.70
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 51.1¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$505.00
$-6.19
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3552 shares @ 6.0¢·now 13.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$467.15
$251.93
- YES
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?
500 shares @ 41.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$412.50
$207.50
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$9.69Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$1.04Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$28.49Jul 28, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$27.27Jul 28, 18:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 17:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 17:22 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 30?$100.00Jul 28, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 30?$60.00Jul 28, 16:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$374.99Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 28?$4.97Jul 28, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 28?$48.07Jul 28, 15:29 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 30?$13.00Jul 28, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 30?$120.51Jul 28, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 30?$7.67Jul 28, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 30?$263.71Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$31.21Jul 28, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$328.23Jul 28, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?$1.82Jul 28, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?$36.43Jul 28, 09:35 UTC
- MERGEWill Hong Kong have less than 400mm of precipitation in July?$850.51Jul 28, 06:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
$22.7K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $206.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 21:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.