Late-Design
0x14f680980fd308cc256f29216e61db404e4af9f7
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$253.71
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-61.14
Win rate
4%
179 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
340 shares @ 13.2¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$76.50
$31.50
- NO
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
17 shares @ 88.1¢·now 90.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.42
$0.45
- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
394 shares @ 6.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.41
$-11.23
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
12 shares @ 44.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$8.52
$3.24
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
9 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$8.01
$-0.09
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 96.6¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.94
$0.21
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
8 shares @ 92.4¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.76
$0.37
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
9 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.51
$-0.04
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?
9 shares @ 61.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$7.20
$1.71
- NO
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?
8 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.16
$-0.04
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$1.00Aug 17, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?$5.13Aug 17, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$6.97Aug 17, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.15Aug 17, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$6.71Aug 17, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$5.22Aug 17, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$7.04Aug 17, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?$8.10Aug 17, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$5.46Aug 17, 11:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$7.14Aug 17, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$7.74Aug 17, 11:30 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$7.41Aug 17, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$8.12Aug 17, 10:57 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$7.54Aug 17, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$8.12Aug 17, 03:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Natus Vincere Win the CS2 EWC 2026?$4.64Aug 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$4.98Aug 17, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natus Vincere Win the CS2 EWC 2026?$4.75Aug 17, 02:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?$5.91Aug 17, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$5.26Aug 17, 01:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
61/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 179 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
179 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 14:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 22:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 179 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.