0x152e773b1986b1c885917a4c9d6cf8d1956f9963
0x152e773b1986b1c885917a4c9d6cf8d1956f9963
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-151.47
Realised
$42.37
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
130 shares @ 80.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$112.45
$8.45
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
123 shares @ 76.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$106.39
$12.12
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
94 shares @ 67.2¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.80
$10.63
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
107 shares @ 52.2¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$70.83
$15.25
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 58.3¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$64.48
$6.18
- YES
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
70 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.85
$-0.35
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
65 shares @ 80.4¢·now 83.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.21
$1.95
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
60 shares @ 81.5¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.80
$3.90
- YES
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
133 shares @ 31.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.65
$-0.73
- NO
UK Recession in 2026?
43 shares @ 69.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$36.30
$6.30
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?$0.28Jul 14, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?$0.08Jul 12, 17:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?$2.10Jul 11, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$10.40Jul 11, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?$8.00Jul 9, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?$4.00Jul 9, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?$6.10Jul 9, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?$8.70Jul 9, 15:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$54.52Jul 9, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?$12.80Jul 9, 11:23 UTC
- TRADESELLSPLC found guilty in 2026?$3.50Jul 8, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?$7.50Jul 8, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?$13.38Jul 8, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$8.70Jul 8, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?$10.00Jul 8, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$10.00Jul 8, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$25.41Jul 8, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$8.00Jul 8, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$6.75Jul 7, 23:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$9.90Jul 7, 06:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $9.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 22:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 23:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.