Favorable-Motion
0x152fdae6b14b9131a61ec77ed61dda50f68da549
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$18.7K
Total PnL
$-105.1K
Realised
$-15.5K
Win rate
2%
63 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- YES
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
169321 shares @ 10.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.9K
$-8.0K
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
539072 shares @ 2.4¢·now 1.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.8K
$-5.3K
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
42492 shares @ 3.9¢·now 1.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$786.11
$-879.62
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
5455 shares @ 11.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$409.09
$-190.90
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
9760 shares @ 4.1¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$395.30
$-4.69
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?
5512 shares @ 5.4¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$181.91
$-118.09
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
3270 shares @ 6.1¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$132.42
$-67.57
- YES
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
14176 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$49.62
$-40.38
- NO
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?
115 shares @ 26.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.35
$6.35
- YES
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
108 shares @ 18.5¢·now 7.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.23
$-11.77
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.71Aug 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.74Aug 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.74Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.75Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.75Aug 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.75Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.80Aug 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Aug 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.80Aug 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.80Aug 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.80Aug 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.80Aug 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.80Aug 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Aug 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Aug 5, 02:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Aug 3, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Aug 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Aug 1, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 63 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
10 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
63 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 10
- Avg trade size
- $1.2K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 20:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 63 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.