Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$39.26
Liquidity
$20.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 7¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $20.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.3h
- 17:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.5pp at 06:00 (to 6¢).
Show all 40 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -5.0pp → 7¢
- 16:00 · -5.5pp → 7¢
- 15:00 · -5.5pp → 7¢
- 13:00 · -6.5pp → 6¢
- 12:00 · -6.5pp → 6¢
- 10:00 · -7.5pp → 6¢
- 09:00 · -7.5pp → 6¢
- 08:00 · -6.5pp → 6¢
- 06:00 · -7.5pp → 6¢
- 05:00 · -5.5pp → 6¢
- 03:00 · -3.5pp → 9¢
- 02:00 · -3.0pp → 11¢
- 00:00 · -4.0pp → 10¢
- 23:00 · -3.0pp → 11¢
- 20:00 · -3.0pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -3.5pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 12¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 12¢
- 3d ago · -3.5pp → 12¢
- 4d ago · -3.5pp → 12¢
- 4d ago · -3.0pp → 13¢
- 4d ago · -3.5pp → 12¢
- 4d ago · -3.5pp → 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- White HouseOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.