Flickering-Cousin
0x1643038efde95846b92b008e2efedca553296ec8
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$57.35
Total PnL
$-4.6K
Realised
$-956.82
Win rate
22%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
58 shares @ 73.4¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$50.17
$7.57
- NO
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
53 shares @ 30.6¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$7.18
$-9.08
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
473 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-7.89
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
436 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-6.21
- YES
Will Tokushima Vortis vs. Zweigen Kanazawa end in a draw?
330 shares @ 26.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-86.90
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
316 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.16
- DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
232 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.32
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
232 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.32
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 7?
199 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.99
- YES
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18?
172 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-71.62
Recent activity
- REDEEMTampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox$5.10Jul 18, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Club ABB win on 2026-05-17?$5.00Jul 17, 10:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-05-08?$5.00Jul 10, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$5.06Jul 8, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Manuel Gavira be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$5.00Jul 5, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$5.00Jul 5, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?$5.20Jul 3, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWeed rescheduled by June 30?$27.63Jul 2, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Syria security agreement by June 30?$5.00Jul 1, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$5.00Jul 1, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine election held by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jul 1, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?$15.00Jul 1, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?$5.00Jun 28, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?$30.21Jun 28, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$5.55Jun 21, 14:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?$20.00Jun 20, 13:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?$5.00Jun 19, 19:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?$10.00Jun 13, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?$20.00Jun 13, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$29.12Jun 9, 20:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
69 closed markets, 22% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 11:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 01:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.