Unsightly-Thesis
0x18cd3eb49412052ed956086bb37ffef471516fb1
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
24
Open notional
$5.29
Total PnL
$-167.26
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
1124 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$2.81
$-6.19
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
83 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.96
$-0.04
- YES
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
31 shares @ 3.2¢·now 2.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.83
$-0.17
- YES
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.69
$-0.31
- YES
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
944 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-50.99
- NO
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?
309 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-47.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 13?
252 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 13?
200 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?
200 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.43
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?
100 shares @ 19.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-19.82
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?$8.05Jul 16, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?$0.78Jul 16, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?$1.66Jul 16, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.54Jul 16, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?$20.46Jul 15, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 13?$2.10Jul 13, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 13?$1.05Jul 13, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 13?$1.05Jul 13, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 13?$4.20Jul 13, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 13?$4.20Jul 13, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$8.40Jul 13, 07:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$10.36Jun 30, 20:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$30.19Jun 30, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$1.00Jun 30, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$3.72Jun 30, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?$1.49Jun 30, 06:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?$1.24Jun 22, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$12.00Jun 20, 19:52 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$1.63Jun 15, 21:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?$0.42Jun 15, 13:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $4.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 21:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 08:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.