Idealistic-Valance
0x191e35891382d3d6590918ff7a4b732689c1ef6b
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$3.0K
Total PnL
$-504.48
Realised
$-212.26
Win rate
53%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
431 shares @ 95.5¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$417.99
$5.99
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
368 shares @ 93.2¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$359.39
$16.35
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
431 shares @ 71.4¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$334.30
$26.14
- NO
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
316 shares @ 84.2¢·now 83.9¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$265.05
$-0.84
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
334 shares @ 79.5¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$263.59
$-1.82
- YES
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?
312 shares @ 79.2¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$240.22
$-6.86
- NO
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
272 shares @ 74.5¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$202.45
$0.01
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
181 shares @ 86.4¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$158.49
$2.06
- YES
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
141 shares @ 65.3¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$89.53
$-2.54
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
82 shares @ 97.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$80.25
$0.41
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?$205.93Jun 23, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?$20.45Jun 23, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?$6.39Jun 23, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?$14.19Jun 23, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?$50.13Jun 23, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?$4.12Jun 23, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?$151.20Jun 23, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?$111.43Jun 23, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?$56.69Jun 23, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$1.56Jun 23, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$53.93Jun 23, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$27.54Jun 23, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$3.97Jun 23, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$7.35Jun 23, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$0.85Jun 23, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$3.67Jun 23, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$4.53Jun 23, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$96.00Jun 23, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$10.66Jun 23, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$78.40Jun 23, 11:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $39.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 02:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 14:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.