Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026?
Probability
53¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+6.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$513.91
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 53¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $514 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 48¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5026.0h
Price movement
+6.5pp over the last 24h, now 53¢.
Biggest hourly move: +6.5pp at 09:00 (to 53¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 14:00 · +6.5pp → 53¢
- 12:00 · +6.5pp → 53¢
- 11:00 · +6.5pp → 53¢
- 10:00 · +6.5pp → 53¢
- 09:00 · +6.5pp → 53¢
- 07:00 · +6.0pp → 53¢
- 05:00 · +5.0pp → 52¢
- 03:00 · +5.0pp → 52¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mathieu "ZywOo" Herbaut's Total HLTV MVP award count reaches 36 or more at any point on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as shown in the MVP overview table within the Trophies section of his HLTV.org player page. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: as of market creation (May 22, 2026), ZywOo's HLTV profile lists 32 Total MVPs. This market may resolve to "No" when it becomes impossible for ZywOo to reach 36 Total MVPs by the deadline (e.g., if no remaining tournaments in 2026 could bring his count to 36). This market will resolve to "No" if ZywOo's Total MVP count has not reached 36 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If ZywOo participates in a tournament that starts on or before that date but concludes after, resolution will be delayed until the day after the tournament concludes to allow HLTV to update the page. The primary resolution source for this market will be the MVP section of ZywOo's HLTV trophies page (https://www.hltv.org/player/11893/zywoo#tab-trophiesBox); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026?"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 14:02:09 GMT, YES is priced at 53% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +6.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +7.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.63. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $513.91. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.