Possible-Alternative-Aluminum
0x1bf561a7bcc510ed14484dfebc54c477f5c9ff5e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
179
Open notional
$600.27
Total PnL
$-39.55
Realised
$10.29
Win rate
90%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 179- NO
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
10 shares @ 92.3¢·now 93.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.34
$0.10
- NO
Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.20
$0.20
- NO
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$8.62
$-0.10
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 89.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$8.14
$-0.00
- NO
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9 shares @ 88.1¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.87
$0.08
- YES
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
8 shares @ 81.4¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$6.62
$-0.12
- NO
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?
7 shares @ 88.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.78
$-0.03
- NO
Will Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
6 shares @ 91.6¢·now 91.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$5.50
$-0.04
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?
10 shares @ 52.1¢·now 52.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.10
$-0.01
- NO
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
5 shares @ 94.9¢·now 96.4¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$4.82
$0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?$4.20Aug 17, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?$3.65Aug 17, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?$1.10Aug 17, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?$2.40Aug 17, 22:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?$4.37Aug 17, 22:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$0.98Aug 17, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$3.92Aug 17, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$4.30Aug 17, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$4.62Aug 17, 21:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?$4.17Aug 17, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?$3.35Aug 17, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?$0.70Aug 17, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by September 30?$4.15Aug 17, 21:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$4.50Aug 17, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$4.45Aug 17, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$4.87Aug 17, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?$0.57Aug 17, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?$4.60Aug 17, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$4.10Aug 17, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$4.30Aug 17, 20:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
78/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
52 closed markets, 90% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 17:48 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 23:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.