Fearful-Notion
0x1f517a74391e63b155113104708cb5520a3f09ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$391.28
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$6.45
Win rate
44%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
267 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$267.00
$0.53
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
418 shares @ 35.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$102.41
$-43.89
- YES
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$17.00
$10.37
- YES
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.45
$-1.75
- YES
Brex IPO before 2027?
49 shares @ 9.3¢·now 1.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.73
$-3.82
- NO
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 19.5¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.68
$0.48
- YES
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
1 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- PEPPERDINE WAVES
San Diego Toreros vs. Pepperdine Waves
1906 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-933.94
- FENERBAHCE
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce
690 shares @ 49.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-343.62
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 4AM ET
620 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-310.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?$115.28Apr 27, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?$65.80Apr 27, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?$407.02Apr 27, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?$115.28Apr 23, 10:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$166.75Apr 12, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$1.96Apr 12, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$187.64Apr 11, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$1.92Apr 11, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$103.04Apr 11, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$112.40Apr 11, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$292.40Apr 11, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$70.80Apr 11, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$172.80Apr 11, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?$289.08Apr 11, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$175.11Apr 11, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$463.71Apr 11, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?$341.64Apr 11, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$172.50Apr 11, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$182.87Apr 11, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$99.36Apr 11, 11:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $191.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 09:44 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 10:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.