0x224f616cd94f396120085a03e13e6afd614302cd
0x224f616cd94f396120085a03e13e6afd614302cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$95.54
Total PnL
$-10.20
Realised
$-0.81
Win rate
38%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 79.3¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.37
$2.23
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
12 shares @ 66.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.18
$0.18
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.25
$1.25
- NO
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?
6 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.12
$3.12
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?
6 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$6.02
$1.02
- NO
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
6 shares @ 88.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.67
$0.67
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
6 shares @ 66.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$5.34
$1.33
- NO
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?
19 shares @ 54.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$5.19
$-4.81
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
5 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.89
$0.83
- NO
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
5 shares @ 68.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.96
$0.53
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$3.00Mar 24, 00:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$2.25Mar 24, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$5.00Mar 23, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?$4.86Mar 23, 22:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$1.94Mar 23, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$4.06Mar 23, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?$2.88Mar 23, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$3.00Mar 23, 15:22 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$5.99Mar 23, 14:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?$1.61Mar 23, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$3.43Mar 23, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYInsurrection Act invoked by December 31?$3.43Mar 23, 11:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$1.10Mar 23, 11:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$0.98Mar 23, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$5.00Mar 23, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$8.00Mar 23, 03:06 UTC
- TRADESELLKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$11.03Mar 23, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$2.32Mar 23, 02:26 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$6.85Mar 22, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?$10.00Mar 22, 23:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 17:23 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 24, 00:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.