Alarmed-Oyster
0x22bfdbce977910d559672f37a33882b04cde8642
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$333.89
Total PnL
$-461.33
Realised
$19.84
Win rate
97%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
1364 shares @ 12.6¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$129.59
$-41.92
- YES
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
1720 shares @ 10.1¢·now 6.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$103.23
$-69.78
- YES
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
62 shares @ 41.2¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.25
$-16.17
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
20 shares @ 49.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.88
$-1.12
- YES
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
105 shares @ 6.7¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.81
$-0.19
- YES
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
13 shares @ 39.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.19
$0.19
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
22 shares @ 23.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.57
$-0.43
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
120 shares @ 4.2¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.14
$-0.86
- YES
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?
9 shares @ 17.1¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.02
$1.54
- YES
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
20 shares @ 19.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.96
$-0.92
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?$1.05Jun 13, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jun 13, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?$0.63Jun 13, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jun 13, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jun 13, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.05Jun 13, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.05Jun 13, 11:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$2.50Jun 12, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?$1.13Jun 12, 22:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$1.06Jun 12, 22:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?$1.67Jun 12, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?$1.00Jun 12, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$1.00Jun 12, 07:45 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by June 30?$2.12Jun 12, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$2.00Jun 11, 15:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?$0.00Jun 11, 15:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?$1.64Jun 11, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$1.01Jun 9, 19:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $85B by June 30?$1.15Jun 9, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?$1.00Jun 8, 13:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 09:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 15:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.