Distorted-Circulation
0x23eb447b90de5ce161e69edc318bbedabf91c516
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
71
Open notional
$168.59
Total PnL
$155.42
Realised
$143.58
Win rate
41%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- NO
Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
5 shares @ 91.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.00
$0.42
- NO
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
5 shares @ 92.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.00
$0.38
- NO
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
5 shares @ 47.2¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.99
$2.63
- NO
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.98
$1.93
- NO
Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
5 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$4.97
$0.72
- NO
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
5 shares @ 82.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$4.87
$0.77
- NO
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?
5 shares @ 97.1¢·now 97.2¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$4.86
$0.00
- NO
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?
5 shares @ 95.2¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.81
$0.05
- YES
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?
5 shares @ 63.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$4.80
$1.65
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat?
5 shares @ 94.1¢·now 94.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.71
$0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.00Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$5.00Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast get married by December 31?$5.00Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?$5.00Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.00Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- REDEEMTaylor Swift pregnant before marriage?$5.00Jul 4, 07:06 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?$5.00Jul 2, 15:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?$5.00Jul 2, 07:07 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jul 1, 15:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?$0.00Jul 1, 11:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June?$5.00Jul 1, 11:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$5.00Jul 1, 11:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?$0.00Jul 1, 11:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?$0.00Jul 1, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?$5.00Jul 1, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?$0.00Jul 1, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?$0.00Jul 1, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?$0.00Jul 1, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?$5.00Jul 1, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$0.00Jul 1, 08:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 23:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.