Back-Immigrant
0x24556c9b1fb04f80c63a1926b133fcffce0b46a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$315.14
Total PnL
$-62.54
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
100 shares @ 84.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$92.50
$8.50
- YES
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
249 shares @ 33.4¢·now 35.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$88.21
$5.21
- YES
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
100 shares @ 37.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$61.50
$24.50
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
55 shares @ 13.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$55.43
$48.23
- NO
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
10 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.00
$2.50
- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
100 shares @ 42.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.50
$-34.50
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
137 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-57.97
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by March 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?$11.41Apr 11, 07:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?$8.59Apr 8, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$2.60Mar 12, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 15?$6.43Mar 11, 03:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$90.30Mar 11, 03:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$88.05Mar 6, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$1.56Mar 4, 18:38 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 15?$40.32Mar 2, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 15?$78.12Mar 2, 03:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 6?$12.00Mar 2, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$1.39Mar 1, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$0.30Mar 1, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMGovernment shutdown on Saturday?$3.57Mar 1, 21:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 6?$26.00Mar 1, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 15?$200.00Mar 1, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 6?$24.00Mar 1, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$192.00Mar 1, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 6?$23.00Mar 1, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$1.23Feb 28, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$0.13Feb 27, 23:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $24.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 8, 05:52 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 11, 07:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.