Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
Probability
39¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$158.92
Liquidity
$25.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5991.4h
- 08:34SignalLOW
Signal · Momentum down
Probability moved down 3.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover.
- 08:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5991h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:34PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 40¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 40¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 40¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 39¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 42¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 42¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 45¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 45¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify. If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only". Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact. If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration. The resolution source will be video footage.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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