Broken-Dogwood
0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$656.9K
Total PnL
$761.3K
Realised
$1.2M
Win rate
60%
115 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
550000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$313.8K
$38.8K
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
550000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$236.2K
$-38.8K
- NO
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
22231 shares @ 80.9¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.0K
$1.0K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
17777 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.3K
$88.88
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
10307 shares @ 75.6¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.1K
$297.17
- NO
New pandemic in 2026?
7777 shares @ 87.6¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.1K
$305.54
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
9237 shares @ 78.9¢·now 76.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.1K
$-186.95
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4120 shares @ 93.2¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.0K
$125.14
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
6069 shares @ 44.4¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.9K
$1.2K
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
22345 shares @ 15.7¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.2K
$-268.47
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$15.39Jul 28, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$804.94Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$38.64Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.44Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$11.76Jul 28, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$15.68Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- MERGEWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.3KJul 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.7KJul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$18.09Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$583.88Jul 28, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$60.00Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$4.38Jul 28, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$269.30Jul 28, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$1.0KJul 28, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$44.51Jul 28, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$55.21Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$663.53Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$0.38Jul 28, 12:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$1.15Jul 28, 12:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$0.51Jul 28, 12:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$112.3K
Trades
3
Buy share
42%
Window
May 18, 00:10 UTC → Jun 21, 19:25 UTC
- SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$6.3K@95¢Jun 15, 21:50 UTC
- SELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$20.4K@99¢Jun 10, 11:06 UTC
- SELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$7.3K@95¢May 22, 23:32 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
69/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 115 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 8 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
115 closed markets, 60% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
42%
Sample
limited
8 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$27.7K · 25% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $192.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 21:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 115 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.