0x251e26b44983ece5613c4dc0656427c448e304b6
0x251e26b44983ece5613c4dc0656427c448e304b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$122.05
Total PnL
$-183.51
Realised
$1.28
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?
30 shares @ 29.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$29.70
$21.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 14?
21 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$21.30
$14.91
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
26 shares @ 30.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.94
$13.04
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?
21 shares @ 24.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$20.83
$15.83
- NO
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?
12 shares @ 40.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$12.49
$7.49
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
11 shares @ 46.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.42
$3.42
- NO
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
62 shares @ 10.7¢·now 10.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.22
$-0.35
- YES
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
23 shares @ 34.0¢·now 8.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.89
$-5.88
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.25
$-0.79
- YES
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 29, 2026?
882 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-8.82
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 22?$3.33Mar 20, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 22?$0.55Mar 20, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 22?$0.56Mar 20, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 22?$0.55Mar 20, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?$5.00Mar 20, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on March 21?$5.00Mar 20, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 98°F or higher on March 22?$0.41Mar 20, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 98°F or higher on March 22?$4.59Mar 20, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 20?$5.00Mar 19, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.00Mar 19, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?$3.13Mar 19, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?$0.93Mar 19, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?$0.93Mar 19, 17:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?$1.45Mar 15, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?$1.17Mar 14, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?$1.04Mar 14, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 17?$1.89Mar 14, 18:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 13?$5.29Mar 14, 18:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hannover 96 win on 2026-03-08?$5.44Mar 14, 18:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 10?$19.00Mar 14, 18:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 22:00 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 20, 16:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.