Immaterial-Beach
0x264f786a1d43ad30eeeab67c1cc224a5d50bcd38
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$40.97
Total PnL
$8.39
Realised
$-0.02
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 86%-89%?
7 shares @ 47.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$4.62
$1.33
- YES
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth <2%?
8 shares @ 2.2¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$3.48
$3.31
- YES
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30?
8 shares @ 48.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.39
$-0.23
- YES
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
9 shares @ 21.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$3.35
$1.42
- YES
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 3.5%+?
8 shares @ 5.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$3.00
$2.60
- YES
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
8 shares @ 33.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.75
$0.04
- YES
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?
4 shares @ 57.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$2.60
$0.07
- NO
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw?
4 shares @ 52.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$2.60
$0.55
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?
30 shares @ 4.9¢·now 6.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.01
$0.53
- YES
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 3.5 and 3.9% in 2026?
7 shares @ 26.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2027$1.61
$-0.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.75Jun 20, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 25?$0.03Jun 20, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 25?$0.03Jun 20, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25?$0.19Jun 20, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 25?$0.01Jun 20, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?$0.51Jun 20, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?$0.67Jun 20, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?$0.54Jun 20, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30?$3.62Jun 20, 04:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$6.93Jun 20, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$2.15Jun 20, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$2.23Jun 20, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$2.23Jun 20, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$0.23Jun 20, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 25?$0.05Jun 20, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 64m and 70m?$0.90Jun 20, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Olivia Rodrigo have 5 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June 27?$3.44Jun 20, 02:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Olivia Rodrigo have 4 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June 27?$0.32Jun 20, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olivia Rodrigo have 4 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June 27?$3.54Jun 20, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olivia Rodrigo have 5 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June 27?$3.68Jun 20, 02:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 23:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 05:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.