Immaterial-Beach
0x264f786a1d43ad30eeeab67c1cc224a5d50bcd38
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
138
Open notional
$103.25
Total PnL
$-50.84
Realised
$30.04
Win rate
52%
82 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 138- YES
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?
12 shares @ 63.9¢·now 50.6¢·exp Jan 22, 2027$6.30
$-1.66
- NO
Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 95%+?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.00
$0.30
- NO
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 2.5%-3%?
5 shares @ 60.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$5.00
$2.00
- YES
Will GE Aerospace (GE) Q2 adjusted revenue be above $12B?
5 shares @ 56.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$4.92
$2.15
- NO
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw?
4 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$3.94
$1.89
- NO
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $1.00T on June 30?
4 shares @ 81.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.88
$0.73
- NO
Will Strava’s market cap be between $7B and $10B at market close on IPO day?
5 shares @ 92.1¢·now 70.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$3.52
$-1.09
- NO
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 61.3¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.51
$0.64
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
3 shares @ 96.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$3.23
$0.09
- NO
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
8 shares @ 28.8¢·now 39.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.17
$0.83
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.05Aug 5, 18:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.17Aug 5, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 3.0 and 3.4% in 2026?$0.03Aug 5, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan's core-core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?$0.14Aug 5, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan's core-core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?$0.81Aug 5, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan's core-core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?$0.55Aug 5, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan's core-core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?$0.01Aug 5, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?$1.92Aug 3, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?$7.93Aug 1, 07:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026?$4.88Aug 1, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?$0.13Jul 31, 23:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.27Jul 31, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.28Jul 31, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.04Jul 31, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.08Jul 31, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$5.79Jul 31, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?$2.51Jul 31, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$1.57Jul 31, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?$0.02Jul 31, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$1.15Jul 31, 14:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 82 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
82 closed markets, 52% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 02:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 18:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 82 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.