Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?
Probability
22¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$2.9K
Liquidity
$5.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 22, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-29.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 22¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $5.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 22, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary company filing and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Annual Report
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary company filing and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 22, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4631.2h
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.
Biggest hourly move: -53.0pp at 08:00 (to 26¢).
Show top 8 of 58 hourly moves
- 10:00 · -47.5pp → 22¢
- 08:00 · -53.0pp → 26¢
- Jul 12, 20:00 UTC · -31.5pp → 20¢
- Jul 12, 17:00 UTC · -31.5pp → 20¢
- Jul 12, 16:00 UTC · -31.5pp → 20¢
- Jul 12, 10:00 UTC · -31.5pp → 20¢
- Jul 12, 07:00 UTC · -32.0pp → 20¢
- Jul 10, 23:00 UTC · -40.5pp → 11¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
cpiReason
Question text contains "cpi" — matched the Macro keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?"?
As of Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:45:22 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -29.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 22, 2027 (2027-01-22T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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