Wallet digest

active

Activity score

82/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$910.80

Total PnL

$-1.0K

Realised

$-71.47

Win rate

67%

39 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 71

NO
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?
468 shares @ 67.2¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$409.30
$94.80
YES
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027?
145 shares @ 85.4¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$125.75
$1.47
NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
178 shares @ 35.4¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$91.71
$28.74
YES
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?
265 shares @ 55.4¢·now 17.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$47.48
$-99.44
YES
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?
468 shares @ 26.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$44.44
$-77.41
YES
Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 18.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$37.00
$1.00
NO
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?
38 shares @ 20.7¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$33.73
$25.89
NO
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?
32 shares @ 60.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$27.60
$8.11
NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?
34 shares @ 47.9¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$27.30
$11.25
NO
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
209 shares @ 6.7¢·now 10.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$22.64
$8.66

Recent activity

MAKER_REBATE$2.01Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid dip to $48 in July?$37.80Jul 28, 14:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid dip to $48 in July?$1.80Jul 28, 12:46 UTC
TRADESELLOpensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?$485.16Jul 28, 12:41 UTC
TRADESELLOpensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?$47.70Jul 28, 11:44 UTC
REWARD$1.97Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$4.07Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
TRADESELLOpensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?$57.14Jul 26, 20:02 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$10.65Jul 26, 06:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$2.40Jul 26, 06:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$2.60Jul 26, 06:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$2.34Jul 26, 06:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$0.08Jul 26, 06:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$0.27Jul 26, 06:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$2.85Jul 26, 06:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$0.76Jul 26, 06:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$1.04Jul 26, 06:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$2.00Jul 26, 06:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$2.10Jul 26, 06:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$2.25Jul 26, 06:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

67% win rate over 39 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

39 closed markets, 67% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry69 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk41 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $15.65
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 26, 06:27 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 39 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:27:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data