Delayed-Appetiser
0x270afb53118b0f5a9d706f4d90b82bb877d27b78
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-22.5K
Realised
$95.90
Win rate
59%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
936 shares @ 66.2¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$734.72
$115.31
- NO
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
502 shares @ 89.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$419.35
$-27.62
- YES
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
1301 shares @ 34.2¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$156.17
$-288.41
- NO
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
324 shares @ 28.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$69.73
$-21.05
- YES
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
287 shares @ 13.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.49
$7.25
- YES
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
520 shares @ 8.1¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$28.86
$-13.17
- YES
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
210 shares @ 38.4¢·now 12.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.77
$-53.82
- NO
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
92 shares @ 27.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.38
$0.46
- YES
Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
520 shares @ 5.9¢·now 3.4¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$17.42
$-13.48
- YES
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
232 shares @ 8.1¢·now 5.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.80
$-4.93
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$5.68Jul 24, 09:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$28.60Jul 24, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.46Jul 24, 07:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.00Jul 24, 04:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$7.47Jul 23, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$29.24Jul 23, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$42.82Jul 23, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$64.15Jul 23, 01:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.41Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$448.93Jul 20, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$279.64Jul 20, 08:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.68Jul 20, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$10.81Jul 20, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.51Jul 20, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.17Jul 20, 08:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
37 closed markets, 59% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $49.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.