Golden-Chivalry
0x2762873b815644d5b13790aeed3fcaed7d222cf6
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
103
Open notional
$7.5K
Total PnL
$495.44
Realised
$384.15
Win rate
80%
65 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 103- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
750 shares @ 92.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$709.13
$12.07
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
600 shares @ 97.2¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$597.90
$14.64
- NO
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
550 shares @ 87.8¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$506.00
$23.31
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
650 shares @ 78.3¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$497.25
$-11.97
- NO
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
427 shares @ 73.1¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$335.58
$23.11
- NO
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026?
350 shares @ 84.1¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$295.75
$1.34
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
232 shares @ 86.2¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$196.30
$-3.90
- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
200 shares @ 92.1¢·now 94.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$189.60
$5.40
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
200 shares @ 87.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$189.00
$14.77
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
200 shares @ 91.5¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$186.01
$3.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?$9.20Jul 29, 00:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?$6.89Jul 29, 00:08 UTC
- REWARD$8.89Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$15.20Jul 28, 23:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?$2.55Jul 28, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?$2.60Jul 28, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?$9.60Jul 28, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?$12.80Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- MERGEWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?$20.00Jul 28, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?$26.36Jul 28, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?$7.60Jul 28, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$7.00Jul 28, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$46.50Jul 28, 19:21 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain snap election called by August 31, 2026?$14.24Jul 28, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?$1.91Jul 28, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$39.51Jul 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLJosé Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?$39.85Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$5.00Jul 28, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain snap election called in 2026?$22.76Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 65 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
65 closed markets, 80% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $14.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 07:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 65 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.