Sorrowful-Samovar
0x2843d543c60a54106f572ab74f0e2e04f293b3d2
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$3.5K
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-31.50
Win rate
76%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
542 shares @ 60.2¢·now 75.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$409.01
$83.10
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
603 shares @ 61.2¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$401.28
$32.00
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
250 shares @ 87.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$226.25
$7.75
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
701 shares @ 56.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$185.82
$-206.95
- YES
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
164 shares @ 75.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$160.80
$37.74
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 76.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$141.00
$-11.00
- NO
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
150 shares @ 69.3¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$139.49
$35.50
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
400 shares @ 44.6¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$118.00
$-60.25
- NO
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
250 shares @ 61.9¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$116.13
$-38.67
- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
350 shares @ 64.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$106.75
$-117.22
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$300.00Jul 30, 00:31 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$50.00Jul 30, 00:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$1.88Jul 30, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$21.15Jul 29, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$15.32Jul 29, 23:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?$100.00Jul 29, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 9-11 times in July?$8.22Jul 29, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 9-11 times in July?$8.22Jul 29, 20:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$200.00Jul 29, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)$8.80Jul 29, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?$71.00Jul 29, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)$4.40Jul 29, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)$1.41Jul 29, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)$2.26Jul 29, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$152.60Jul 29, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$18.20Jul 29, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)$0.28Jul 29, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)$4.84Jul 29, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$76.00Jul 29, 01:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
76% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $37.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 05:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.