Internal-Hail
0x2884f98185d2005691d245f3e2e70b15d1e1d0c3
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
159
Open notional
$12.5K
Total PnL
$-838.52
Realised
$507.22
Win rate
70%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 159- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
10287 shares @ 29.9¢·now 21.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.2K
$-857.82
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
1815 shares @ 87.1¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$98.46
- NO
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
1335 shares @ 89.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$71.59
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
1281 shares @ 78.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$58.15
- NO
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
1236 shares @ 82.1¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$23.18
- NO
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?
1047 shares @ 87.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$863.57
$-46.64
- NO
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
673 shares @ 87.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$582.31
$-8.95
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
437 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$364.91
$-2.43
- NO
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?
338 shares @ 86.6¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$328.71
$36.09
- NO
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
217 shares @ 88.1¢·now 89.8¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$195.36
$3.69
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$8.40Aug 20, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$8.40Aug 20, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$106.34Aug 20, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?$16.39Aug 20, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?$7.63Aug 20, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?$2.56Aug 20, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Allah again by August 31?$3.56Aug 20, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Allah again by August 31?$2.99Aug 20, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo one announced as next James Bond?$13.87Aug 20, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$17.98Aug 20, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by December 31, 2026?$8.30Aug 20, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine election called by August 31, 2026?$0.05Aug 20, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?$7.85Aug 20, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYLula participates in debate before first round?$5.00Aug 20, 10:17 UTC
- MERGEUkraine election called by August 31, 2026?$27.14Aug 20, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by December 31, 2026?$8.40Aug 20, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by December 31, 2026?$8.40Aug 20, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by December 31, 2026?$8.50Aug 20, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?$39.12Aug 20, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYKanye West performs in Russia by October 31?$22.33Aug 20, 08:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
60 closed markets, 70% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $20.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 17:33 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 14:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.