Shimmering-Mare
0x2ae756170b6a58bfa92883c457fe0d5f79b82419
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$0.01
Total PnL
$-218.80
Realised
$-13.05
Win rate
3%
59 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- YES
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
3 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.01
$-0.11
- YES
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
233 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
137 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.47
- NO
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
133 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 24?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- JIL TEICHMANN
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann
59 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMLoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group$6.92Aug 12, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group$2.78Aug 12, 03:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?$0.20Jul 2, 04:22 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$0.34Jul 2, 04:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the OH-02 House seat?$0.87Jul 2, 04:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?$0.66Jul 2, 04:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$0.33Jul 2, 04:21 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$0.84Jul 2, 04:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.20Jul 2, 04:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.26Jul 2, 04:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.80Jul 2, 04:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?$0.99Jul 2, 04:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$1.98Jul 2, 04:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$1.80Jul 2, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.13Jul 2, 04:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$2.27Jul 2, 04:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$2.70Jul 2, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?$2.71Jul 2, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?$4.42Jul 2, 04:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?$2.52Jul 2, 04:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 59 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
59 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 10:21 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 14:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 59 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.