Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 2000.00 or higher at the end of December 2026?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 4.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.2h
- 16:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.1pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.9pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.9pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.9pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.9pp
to 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) ComAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowbcra.gob.ar
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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