Will Plasma reach $0.40 by December 31, 2026?
Probability
36¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+4.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$230.50
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 36¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 58.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 34¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 34¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 33¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 31¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 37¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 38¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 36¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 37¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 38¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 49¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 41¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for XPL (XPL/USDT) between November 25, 2025, 17:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XPL/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XPL_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XPL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (58.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).