Improbable-Review
0x2cbe696ce9428fa061e042c7cbe6d610be4625bc
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-733.09
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
2554 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
543 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31?
506 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?
383 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
333 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
310 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-130.20
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
300 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-105.00
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
230 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-73.60
- ROMAN DOLIDZE
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)
170 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-28.20
- ALLEN
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card)
129 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$257.99May 17, 21:32 UTC
- REDEEMUFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)$32.76May 17, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)$19.24May 14, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$257.30May 13, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$25.95May 13, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$302.02May 13, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$169.85May 6, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$80.56May 4, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$14.00Apr 23, 11:52 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by April 30, 2026?$13.77Apr 23, 11:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 17, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by April 30, 2026?$17.00Apr 16, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$5.73Apr 16, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$11.33Apr 16, 17:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 11, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $69.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 21, 18:52 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 21:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.