Probable-Papa
0x2d0976ab3621f54ca78af9e6dfa6bc20167c3150
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$-30.6K
Realised
$311.70
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
12630 shares @ 21.4¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.2K
$-1.5K
- YES
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
2664 shares @ 32.4¢·now 28.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$745.88
$-117.92
- YES
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
135 shares @ 74.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$111.49
$11.49
- YES
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.88
$-0.12
- YES
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1?
37247 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 2, 2025$0.00
$-2.9K
- NO
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin September 2-8?
18848 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 9, 2025$0.00
$-1000.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
18587 shares @ 60.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-11.2K
- KHAMZAT CHIMAEV
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
16600 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-13.6K
- ROUNTREE JR.
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr.
694 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 11, 2025$0.00
$-250.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk attend a UFC event by December 31?
400 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.11Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jun 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jun 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jun 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jun 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jun 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jun 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jun 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jun 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jun 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jun 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jun 2, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $100 in May?$142.35Jun 1, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$10.75May 7, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$10.05May 7, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $100 in May?$102.05May 7, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $100 in May?$0.56May 7, 03:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$102.56May 7, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$100.17May 7, 03:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $808.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 20, 18:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.