Detailed-Mapping
0x311b0ea81a479df2f01f862d85e8095fb93c30d9
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$12.64
Total PnL
$-239.48
Realised
$-9.02
Win rate
0%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- YES
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
244 shares @ 5.9¢·now 3.6¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$8.91
$-5.54
- YES
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
125 shares @ 12.0¢·now 2.2¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$2.75
$-12.25
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
42 shares @ 24.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.98
$-9.02
- YES
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.99
- YES
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.99
- ARTHUR RINDERKNECH
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- RINDERKNECH
Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Damm
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 17?
629 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
536 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Luxembourg vs. Italy end in a draw?$2.30Jun 3, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03?$5.13Jun 3, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Senegal end in a draw?$5.12Jun 3, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$5.00Jun 2, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?$10.37Jun 2, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$5.20Jun 2, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?$5.20Jun 2, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?$5.19Jun 2, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$5.15Jun 2, 11:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2?$0.00May 18, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$1.80May 18, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?$5.25May 17, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2?$5.21May 17, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get 48 million or more views on day 2?$5.24May 17, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$5.00May 17, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$5.00May 17, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$5.26May 17, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$15.58May 17, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?$5.32May 17, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17?$15.89May 17, 02:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
37 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $5.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 10:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 3, 14:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.