0x334ce4f470b7acb4e7580f45783ae1d31e741cbd
0x334ce4f470b7acb4e7580f45783ae1d31e741cbd
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$74.68
Total PnL
$-4.67
Realised
$0.25
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
28 shares @ 50.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$20.58
$6.58
- NO
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
17 shares @ 92.6¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.23
$0.48
- YES
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
57 shares @ 19.6¢·now 16.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.12
$-2.07
- YES
AI bubble burst in 2026?
40 shares @ 22.9¢·now 18.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.38
$-1.80
- NO
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
5 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$5.00
$1.50
- NO
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
5 shares @ 78.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.58
$0.67
- YES
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day?
50 shares @ 2.9¢·now 6.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$3.05
$1.60
- YES
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
10 shares @ 33.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.40
$-0.90
- YES
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
6 shares @ 53.0¢·now 35.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.11
$-1.07
- YES
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
30 shares @ 5.4¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.17
$-0.45
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$7.36Jul 14, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$7.38Jul 14, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine joins NATO before 2027?$4.82Jun 21, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine joins NATO before 2027?$4.82Jun 21, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$10.01Jun 20, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$3.35Jun 15, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$3.18Jun 14, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$1.86Jun 14, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$1.91Jun 14, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?$1.38Jun 14, 08:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$2.25Jun 14, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$1.65Jun 14, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$3.65Jun 14, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$1.65Jun 14, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$3.40Jun 14, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$1.80Jun 14, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLModi out by December 31, 2026?$6.35Jun 14, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$1.81Jun 14, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$5.25Jun 14, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$4.37Jun 14, 03:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 03:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 13:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.