0x353ce9bccc8e61cfeeb176c78000d9574ac7557e
0x353ce9bccc8e61cfeeb176c78000d9574ac7557e
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$142.08
Total PnL
$30.00
Realised
$-0.61
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
120 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$120.00
$33.60
- NO
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
13 shares @ 63.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.69
$1.50
- NO
China coup attempt before 2027?
7 shares @ 96.3¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.72
$-0.02
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
5 shares @ 50.5¢·now 65.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.27
$0.74
- YES
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
5 shares @ 49.5¢·now 34.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.73
$-0.74
- YES
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
15 shares @ 7.6¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.68
$-0.46
- NO
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
8 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$5.40Jul 4, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina coup attempt before 2027?$6.74Jun 27, 03:01 UTC
- TRADESELLNord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?$4.71Jun 21, 21:25 UTC
- TRADESELLModi out by December 31, 2026?$4.54Jun 16, 22:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?$1.68Jun 13, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?$1.98Jun 1, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYModi out by December 31, 2026?$4.57Jun 1, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$2.52Jun 1, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$2.48Jun 1, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilei out as President of Argentina before 2027?$1.18Jun 1, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYNord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?$4.70Jun 1, 19:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?$4.67May 23, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?$4.64May 21, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$7.38Apr 26, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$1.26Apr 26, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$12.00Apr 24, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$1.47Apr 24, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$3.81Apr 22, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$3.71Apr 22, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$2.35Apr 12, 01:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $6.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 6, 16:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 22:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.