Plastic-Larder
0x355e5ae20cc1a3a2164f818e4bac8d22dd72a038
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
154
Open notional
$29.6K
Total PnL
$-94.30
Realised
$3.1K
Win rate
92%
79 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 154- NO
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
3700 shares @ 66.8¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$414.63
- NO
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
1751 shares @ 86.1¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$68.12
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
1808 shares @ 80.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$73.00
- NO
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?
1581 shares @ 92.9¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$37.73
- NO
Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
1512 shares @ 90.4¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$86.89
- NO
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
1693 shares @ 46.7¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$418.97
- NO
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
1408 shares @ 45.9¢·now 76.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$434.75
- NO
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
1017 shares @ 91.2¢·now 94.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$958.57
$31.06
- NO
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?
1179 shares @ 77.3¢·now 80.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$946.52
$35.15
- NO
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
973 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$861.54
$-5.22
Recent activity
- TRADESELLNext Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?$3.65Jul 28, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$8.40Jul 28, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$16.80Jul 28, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?$46.00Jul 28, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$16.80Jul 28, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$42.50Jul 28, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?$2.64Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?$38.50Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$10.40Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?$16.20Jul 27, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$2.67Jul 27, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$330.03Jul 27, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$46.00Jul 27, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?$9.00Jul 27, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?$5.33Jul 27, 05:36 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.60Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$21.45Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?$10.80Jul 26, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?$103.06Jul 26, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$180.00Jul 26, 19:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
76/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 79 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
79 closed markets, 92% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $56.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 01:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 12:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 79 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.