Wet-Clam
0x3606f455cf588c84453f56e749cd15bca4f14e08
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$472.62
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$57.89
Win rate
100%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
432 shares @ 75.5¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$347.75
$21.49
- NO
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
60 shares @ 49.5¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$49.51
$19.80
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
79 shares @ 56.9¢·now 29.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$22.94
$-22.06
- YES
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
100 shares @ 6.3¢·now 13.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.75
$7.40
- NO
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
100 shares @ 15.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.50
$-1.50
- YES
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
37 shares @ 63.3¢·now 35.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.26
$-10.11
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
10 shares @ 86.5¢·now 91.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$9.49
$0.49
- NO
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
2 shares @ 74.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.52
$0.26
- YES
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
100 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.60
$-3.45
- YES
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
50 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.30
$-4.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.28Jul 16, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.35Jul 16, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$2.93Jul 16, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$1.05Jul 16, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$5.34Jul 13, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$66.48Jul 13, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$26.12Jul 13, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?$117.43Jul 6, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?$194.57Jul 6, 13:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?$16.99Jul 2, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMMeta "Mango" model released by June 30?$100.00Jul 1, 11:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$148.88Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$5.37Jun 30, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?$36.42Jun 17, 15:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$20.00Jun 13, 06:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?$63.36Jun 11, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?$100.00Jun 9, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?$200.00Jun 9, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?$20.00Jun 9, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$11.21Jun 9, 08:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $59.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 13:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 21:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.